Mark Elbadramany

Twelve Things to Settle Before January

A smiling man in a navy blazer and open-collar white shirt stands beside an office window overlooking a city skyline.
A smiling man in a navy blazer and open-collar white shirt stands beside an office window overlooking a city skyline.

January is the worst month in Florida to do your annual planning. For a great many businesses here, the first quarter is the busiest stretch of the year. The seasonal residents are back, the weather is cooperating, construction crews are working full days, and the phone rings. Sitting down in the second week of January to write an annual operating plan means writing it with one eye on the schedule and the other on a customer who is waiting. The plan that comes out of that is a wish list.

So the useful version of a small business annual planning checklist is not a document you produce in January. It is a set of decisions you finish making by the first week of December, while things are still quiet enough to think. What follows is the dozen items I would want settled, roughly in the order I would take them, with a bias toward the ones that are cheap to decide now and expensive to decide late.

Weeks one and two: the money questions

One: build a thirteen-week cash forecast yourself. Not your bookkeeper, you. A column for each of the next thirteen weeks, an opening balance, the receipts you actually expect, the payments you actually owe, a closing balance. It will be wrong. That is fine. The output you need is not a number, it is the knowledge of which week is tightest and what has to be true for you to get through it. Owners who keep this spreadsheet open on Mondays stop being surprised, and being unsurprised is most of what financial discipline amounts to.

Two: decide the price increase now, and decide the date. The common pattern is to think about pricing in March, agonise through April, and implement in June, having absorbed six months of cost inflation for no reason. Settle it in November. Pick the percentage, pick the effective date, and write the two sentences you will say to a customer who pushes back. Writing the sentences is the part people skip, and it is the part that determines whether you actually hold the price.

Three: work the receivables list before the holidays. Print the aging report and call the three largest overdue accounts yourself. December is a good month to get paid, because budgets are closing and someone on the other side would rather clear the invoice than carry it. January is a bad month, because new budgets have not opened. The call costs you twenty minutes.

Four: book the November meeting with your accountant. Not April. By April every decision that mattered has already been made for you. The November conversation is about owner compensation, entity structure, whether equipment purchases belong in this year or the next, and what your estimated payments should look like. Go in with questions written down.

Week three: insurance, and read it yourself

Five: read your own declarations page. Every Florida owner has an insurance story, and most of them start with a detail nobody read. Your hurricane or named-storm deductible is probably calculated as a share of insured value rather than a flat amount, which means it is a much larger number than the deductible you think you have. Flood is almost certainly not in your property policy. Business interruption coverage may require direct physical damage to your premises, which means a week of closure because the road is impassable and the power is out may not trigger anything at all.

Ask your broker those three questions specifically, in writing, and keep the answers. Then look at when the policy renews. If it renews in the spring, the work starts in December, because a late submission gets whatever is left. I have written before that hurricane season is an annual test you take whether you studied or not; the insurance review is the open-book portion, and it is the only part you can finish early.

Six: build a one-page contract map. Every recurring vendor agreement, its renewal date, its notice period, and whether you personally guaranteed it. Software, equipment leases, waste, maintenance, the merchant processor, the lease itself. Auto-renewal clauses are designed to be forgotten, and the notice window on the one you most want out of is usually the shortest. Put every notice deadline in your calendar with a reminder a month ahead. This takes an afternoon once and saves you something every year afterwards.

Week four: the people plan, on one page

Seven: staff against the demand curve, not the headcount you ended the year with. Florida seasonality is predictable enough to plan around and sharp enough to hurt if you do not. If your busiest eight weeks start in January, hiring in January is too late. Decide in November how many people you need, when they start, and where they come from. Students on winter break and the spring semester are a real pool for seasonal and part-time work if you plan the timing around their calendar rather than yours, which is most of what makes hiring college students work or fail.

Eight: settle pay before anyone asks. Decide the raise date, decide the bands, and check what the market is paying now rather than what you paid last year. If you cannot afford an increase, decide that too, and decide what you will say. The worst outcome is an unprepared conversation in February where you improvise a number you later regret.

Nine: name one thing you will stop doing by March, and who takes it. One. Written down, with a name next to it and a date. Owners who try to delegate five things in January delegate none of them. The order you hand things off in matters more than the number, and the annual plan is the natural place to pick the next one.

The review most owners skip

Ten: decide what you are going to stop selling, and to whom. This is the item that falls off every list. Growth plans are pleasant to write. A stop list is not, because every line on it is revenue you are voluntarily declining and a conversation you will have to have.

Do it anyway, and start with concentration. What share of revenue comes from your largest customer? From a single referral source? From one service line, one neighbourhood, one builder, one season? You do not need a precise figure; you need to know whether any single relationship could disappear and take your year with it. Most owners already know the answer and avoid saying it out loud. In Florida the problem compounds, because the business, the house and the local economy tend to be the same bet in slightly different wrappers.

Then name the work you will not take next year. The customer who pays slowly and calls constantly. The service line you kept because you always offered it, which occupies your best technician and earns nothing. The job type you only win on price. Capacity you free in December is capacity you can sell in February at a better margin. Capacity you free in June is just a gap.

Two things to settle before the holidays

Eleven: choose the one number the team sees every week. Not a dashboard. One number, posted somewhere visible, that a new employee could understand and influence. Jobs completed, average ticket, booked hours for next week, response time. The number matters less than the fact that it never changes and everyone knows it. The boards I sit on do a version of this, and the discipline is identical at ten people and at a thousand: pick the measure, keep it, and let the argument be about the work rather than about what to measure.

Twelve: put the dates in the calendar before the year fills them. Your continuity drill, scheduled well before June. Four quarterly review days, half a day each, treated as unmovable. Your insurance renewal prep. And your time off, booked first, because the week you do not block in December is the week you will not take.

What a settled December buys you

None of this is complicated, and that is rather the point. A year-end business review is not an exercise in forecasting; it is an exercise in making decisions while you still have the time to make them properly. The value shows up in February, when the question of whether to raise prices, hire a third technician or decline a bad job has already been answered, and you can simply execute instead of deliberating in the middle of your busiest week.

Owners who plan in quiet months spend their busy months working. Owners who plan in busy months mostly just have busy months. The difference between them is a few afternoons in November, and the willingness to write down the one list nobody enjoys writing.